Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Says Market Unanchored in Policy, Technicals, and Economics

Last week, Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor and President of Queens’ College, Cambridge, appeared on CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss a range of topics, including market trends, surging Treasury yields, and the Federal Reserve’s approach to inflation.

Mohamed El-Erian is an influential Egyptian-American economist and financial commentator known for his expertise in macroeconomic analysis, emerging markets, and fixed income. As of January 2022, he served as the Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, the parent company of PIMCO, where he was previously the CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer. El-Erian has a distinguished career that includes stints at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Salomon Smith Barney/Citigroup.

He is a frequent contributor to major financial news outlets like Bloomberg and Financial Times and has authored award-winning books, including “When Markets Collide.” El-Erian holds a Ph.D. in economics from Oxford University and both a bachelor’s and master’s degree in economics from Cambridge University. His insights into economic trends and investment strategies are highly regarded, making him a sought-after expert in the financial community.

Market Lacking Anchors

El-Erian emphasized that the market is currently lacking three crucial anchors: policy, technical, and economic. He argued that the Federal Reserve’s excessive reliance on data does not provide a clear forward-looking view, contributing to the market’s instability. He also mentioned that the market has lost reliable buyers like the Federal Reserve and China, further destabilizing the technical anchor. Lastly, he pointed out that the economic stabilizers that would typically step in when yields rise are weakening.

Treasury Yields and Market Volatility

Discussing the surge in Treasury yields, El-Erian expressed concern over the violent moves in the bond markets. He stated that the market is in a state of flux, with supply expected to increase due to rising government deficits. However, the level at which buyers will step in remains uncertain, leading to potential overshooting and distressed sales.

The Role of the Federal Reserve

El-Erian criticized the Federal Reserve’s excessive data dependence, stating that it’s inconsistent to target a forward-looking economy using backward-looking data. He suggested that the Fed should pivot away from this approach, especially given the strong economic data from the third quarter. El-Erian argued that the Fed should send a clear message that they are done adjusting rates, although he was uncertain whether this would actually happen.

The Need for Market Stabilization

El-Erian stressed the importance of stabilizing the Treasury market, as it serves as a benchmark for many other financial markets. He warned that the more violently the market moves, the greater the risk of a larger overshoot, which could have broader economic and financial implications.

El-Erian concluded that the market is at a critical juncture, facing major inflection points both technically and economically. He called for a more forward-looking approach from the Federal Reserve to help stabilize the market and anchor expectations.
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