Coinbase (COIN), the titan of cryptocurrency exchanges, is grappling with challenges on multiple fronts. New data from Berenberg Capital Markets suggests that the platform’s trading volumes in the U.S. have plunged significantly, down 17% sequentially and a whopping 52% year-over-year. This downturn arrives just as Coinbase gears up to unveil its third-quarter earnings on November 2.
Coinbase’s hiccups aren’t confined to declining trading volumes. Berenberg analysts, led by Mark Palmer, caution that regulatory threats loom large for the company, which has been embroiled in various legal disputes in the United States. If that weren’t enough, Coinbase’s lobbying ambitions for friendlier crypto regulations face complications due to recent headlines about Hamas’ use of cryptocurrencies.
“Recent actions by Hamas could potentially torpedo Coinbase’s lobbying efforts,” says Palmer.
The geopolitical issues, particularly concerning Israel and Hamas, have escalated the scrutiny on cryptocurrency’s legal status. This comes after Israeli authorities froze over 100 crypto accounts suspected of aiding Hamas.
The Stock Keeps Surging, But Why?
Despite what some call a “crypto winter” and the pile-up of regulatory headaches, Coinbase shares are far from crashing. At last check, the stock was trading at $77.30, up 3% for the day, and a striking 112% up for the year. This compares favorably with Bitcoin’s 72% year-to-date gain and Nasdaq’s 29% uptick.
Berenberg analysts hold a “cautious” outlook on Coinbase, maintaining their “hold” rating and a $39 price target on the stock. Interestingly, Palmer warns against shorting the stock outright. “COIN is a crowded short. The stock is uninvestable in the near term but could experience abrupt upside moves as it fights through its legal challenges with the SEC,” he states.
The road ahead appears thorny for Coinbase, with Palmer indicating that the SEC case could continue to be an “overhang” for the stock. However, the company’s large cash reserves and potential for cost-cutting manoeuvres might provide a safety net in turbulent times.
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