Long term Wall Street bear and bitcoin holder, David Tice predicts that the stock market will crash fall by 30% in a retreat that will persist for two years. Although the veteran investor is not giving the specific commencement date for this downturn, he warns that when it breaks, “it’s likely to break hard and cause investors to suffer for a long time.”
Biden Administration Policies
In remarks made during an interview, Tice, who claims to be a “believer in the Austrian School of Economics”, points to the “business-unfriendly policies from Washington” as one of the key reasons for his pessimism. Specifically, the veteran investor attacks some of the Biden administration’s early decisions saying:
We now have a Biden administration that has a Senate and a House. They’re likely to enact very much more anti-capitalist policies. They have already raised the minimum wage. That’s going to hurt earnings on the cost side.
Tice also says that “easy monetary and fiscal policies that support money printing will also sting Wall Street.” He concludes that this is “not good for financial markets.”
Meanwhile, the veteran investor, who is sometimes referred to as a “perma” bear, lays into the current enthusiasm surrounding the Covid-19 vaccine rollout. According to Tice, “the vaccine is not really a panacea” especially now when “there are new strains of the virus, and there is certainly risk going forward.”
Nevertheless, Tice, the former manager of the Prudent Bear Fund, does admit that his timing has not always been on the mark. In addition, the perma bear’s current fund, which is also designed to profit from underperformance, is down 32% in the last three months.
Bitcoin Foreshadows Gold
On the other hand, Tice says he expects gold, which is up by “more than 25% since the March 23 stock market bottom”, to be the “top asset for investors.” Additionally, the veteran investor thinks that “gold is dramatically under-owned by individuals and portfolio managers.”
Further to his belief that that “gold stocks are incredibly cheap”, Tice says bitcoin’s performances can be seen as an indicator of the precious metal’s future performances. Tice says:
I don’t think that bitcoin can be ignored,” Tice said. “We have seen the price of bitcoin go from $10,000 to $40,000 which I think is foreshadowing potentially what might happen in gold.
In 2008, Tice sold the Prudent Bear Fund and at the time the fund had increased in value at a 7.97% annualized rate, while the S&P 500 lost 1.38% annually. It remains to be seen if Tice, who claims to have been “early in 1998, 1999 and in 2006 to 2007”, can profit from his latest bearish prediction.
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